The Rockies non-tendered 3B Garrett Atkins the other day, which was not entirely surprising. After all, the man hit .226/.308/.342 with a paltry 66 OPS+, which, when combined with a fairly average -0.7 UZR/150 mark in the field, does not a $7.05MM commitment warrant. But is this steep decline in numbers a sign of things to come, or could he rebound to former (however relative) glory? And is there another team in need of third base help that could take a flier on the former...15th-place-in-MVP-voting Atkins? Let's take a look.

Click on this link to see his full 2006-2009 stats to judge the decline for yourself, but suffice it to say that you could ski on the downward slope of his OPS+. From a lofty 136 in 2006, he's seen an average decrease of ~23 points per year (136 -> 113 -> 96 -> 66). From '06 to '09, his batting average dropped 103 points, his OBP 101, and his slugging percentage 214. Except for a 6.5 mark in 2005, his UZR/150 has always been negative, and sometimes drastically so; his -14.6 UZR/150 season in 2007 was the nadir. A 5.9 win player in 2006, he completed his decline by clocking in at .4 wins below replacement level this year. And while his 2009 OBP was a hefty bit higher than his batting average, which suggests a good ability to take walks, he's been swinging at pitches outside the zone 4-5% more often than he did in his '06 heyday,

What precipitated this decline, then? His BABIP was a career-worst (and awful by any standards, really) .247 in 2009, as compard to a career average of .311. He hit far fewer line drives - almost 6% less than his career average - and saw his HR/fly ball% fall to almost half of what it was in 2006. So those factors certainly played a part in his undoing...but how much does it affect his overall line? Well, while he's not 66 OPS+ bad, he's also not very likely to return to his big bat days of 2006. Factoring in that he's going to be 30 next season, it seems reasonable to conclude that he'll fall somewhere between his 2008 and 2009 seasons - below average, but probably not below replacement level. He'd be a marginally useful bench bat, basically, with (hopefully) enough skill left in the field to not be an absolute butcher - though he's certainly not going to be saving you many runs with the leather.

So who could use such a player? ESPN's Jerry Crasnick has reported that three teams are interested in signing Atkins, and lists the Orioles, Twins, Mariners, Giants, and Rangers as potential suitors. Of those, I would point to the Orioles, Twins, and Giants as the most likely candidates. The O's have potential third basemen Brandon Snyder and Billy Rowell in the system, and Atkins could be used as a bridge to their arrival in the bigs. So if he's going to hold out for a starting job, Baltimore could be the place. In Minnesota, Joe Crede has expressed a desire to return, and while a Atkins/Crede offense/defense platoon wouldn't be the worst idea, it would hamper the Twins' roster flexibility - at least until Crede checks in for his annual DL stint. As for the Giants, they either are or should be desperate for any sort of punch they can get off the bench. Atkins could be a capable backup to Pablo Sandoval, and hey, maybe Atkins' batting eye would rub off on Kung Fu Panda*...though that would probably take away some of the Panda's charm. It's a similar situation in Seattle, where Chone Figgins is already entrenched, but I wouldn't imagine that the Mariners are more eager than the Giants to bring in a bench bat at this point. And as for the Rangers, they're in the process of an ownership change over there, plus could potentially (in a desperate situation) slot Chris Davis as the backup to Michael Young at the hot corner. So, hey, if you're interested in relatively minor transactions involving former big names - and this wouldn't be the Internet if it didn't cater to such shall we say unique tastes - keep an eye on how this Atkins situation unfolds. And if he goes to the Mariners or Rangers, forget that this last paragraph ever happened.

*Is it ok to use a trademarked movie name for a player's nickname? Does DreamWorks approve? And more importantly, isn't it sort of lazy to use the title of a movie as someone's nickname? Not that nicknames are terribly original nowadays and I suppose that even Kung Fu Panda is better than P-Sand (though that would also be kind of funny, no?), but still. The dude's a fun character. I feel like there could be something better for him.

Mike Cameron's deal with the Red Sox should be announced sometime today, along with the Red Sox signing of John Lackey. While Lackey's contract was a bit much, it's still not an awful deal for Boston. However, I have heard some people say that Cameron was a bad signing, due to the team losing offense in the process. While the chicks dig the long ball, it doesn't mean it's the best thing a team can do for itself.

Cameron will likely play left field in Boston, barring a strange Jacoby Ellsbury trade. While Cameron's great defense may not be obvious playing in front of the Green Monster, it will have an affect on the team. Having Cameron in left allows Ellsbury's range to shorten, making the defense better as a whole.

And don't forget, Cameron can still hit. 25+ homers with a solid walk rate is likely in Fenway, so the Sox may be losing an impact bat offensively, but the team is benefiting from this move (and saving some money to spend on Lackey).

A team with the kind of money the Red Sox have typically puts together a helluva offensive ballclub, but this team is looking to be based on pitching and defense. Don't get me wrong, their offense is still good, but the defense and rotation are looking to be the cornerstone for success this year. The fans may not like what they see, but I do. The American League is going to be insane this upcoming year, with as many as 5 teams on my radar to move onto the World Series.

Paddy already gave a great comprehensive look of the blockbuster trade, but I had a couple thoughts I wanted to get off of my chest.

• If Jack Zduriencik isn't the best GM in the league, I don't know who is. I suppose you could make an argument for Theo (that Cameron move, which I'll discuss later today, was brilliant), but I think Jack has one-upped him in this marketplace and still has the money to make his team even better.
• The Mariners gave up nothing for Cliff Lee. Nothing. Aumont was a potential closer, who probably won't be able to pitch in the top of a rotation. Keeping Saunders, Triunfel and Morrow was huge.
• I'm not sure what the Blue Jays are thinking. I realize Halladay wasn't going to sign with them, but I think they could have gotten better value for him.
• Good upgrade for the Phillies. They made out well in this deal. How often can you saw that about a team that just dealt their ace?
• Felix/Lee at the top of a rotation is scary. I'm scared of it, and I'm a fan of the team.
• Halladay/Hamels is good too.
• Next on JackZ's to-do list should be a first baseman. I don't care if it's Russell Branyan or Nick Johnson at this point. Hell, sign 'em both! I wouldn't even mind bringing in Jason Giambi to play some DH, but I give that a 5% chance of happening.

Dallas Star-Telegram:

It looks like Nolan Ryan isn't going anywhere. Baseball sources have confirmed that Tom Hicks has all but accepted the bid of Chuck Greenberg, who is partnered with Ryan, to purchase the Texas Rangers. Negotiations are still on-going, according to sources, but things have tipped heavily in Greenberg's direction.

So, um...this is kind of a big deal, even if it's not official. Let's take a preliminary look at the main parts, keeping in mind that some of the names could change in the coming hours.

In an offseason that's already been filled with intrigue, wheeling, dealing and rampant stupidity we have what will probably be the blockbuster deal of the winter. We've a three-team affair on our hands; let's take a look at the damage.

Phillies receive RHP Roy Halladay (whom they will then sign to a 3-year, $60MM extension), OF Tyson Gillies, RHP Juan Ramirez and RHP Phillippe Aumont

Mariners receive LHP Cliff Lee

Blue Jays receive either RHP Kyle Drabek or LHP J.A. Happ, C Travis D'Arnaud, and maybe OF Michael Taylor

Update: The Blue Jays are now apparently going to be sending Taylor to the A's in exchange for 3B by trade but eventual 1B/DH by skill Brett Wallace

After you let that digest for a second, read along after the jump for the trenchant analysis that can only come after finishing up with finals week. I promise you, it'll be better than what you hear from Jayson Stark, who literally just said the Phillies essentially traded Lee for Halladay, and that Halladay wants to go to Philadelphia because he lives minutes from their Spring Training facility. I think it's time to change the channel.

In this past week's Sports Illustrated, writer Chris Ballard was calling "bull" on different aspects of sports. He brings up Moneyball at one point:

Moneyballers, come on down, because I'm calling b.s. Not on the stats revolution (valid) or Billy Beane (ahead of his time) or even the measures themselves (OPS is pretty damn useful). No, I'm talking about the holier-than-thous who profess to prefer a game predicated on driving in runs with walks, never stealing bases and acquiring a fleet of Scott Hattebergs. The ideas may have been enlightening, but we all know that when it's late at night and no one's around, you revel in watching Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval bushwhack his way on base and Rays outfielder Carl Crawford swipe second and third. You know why? Because sports aren't homework; they're entertainment.

Interesting points. I'm happy he admitted that the stat revolution, Billy Beane and OPS isn't b.s. Then I really would have needed to attack him.

He makes a very good point. Pablo Sandoval is very entertaining to watch, even if we know his constant swinging is a bad idea. The hardcore stats guys (see: MGL) don't find entertainment in this, but I think a good deal of us do. But, most people realize a team of Hatteberg's isn't going to win, and the value of defense is much higher now (maybe even too high, in my opinion).

Geoff Baker wrote about Twitter and it's effect on the rumor mill in the Seattle Times on Sunday. He even talked to Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik, who said this about the social media service and the flurry of rumors:

Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik said there is less face-to-face interaction between team officials and agents at the meetings than a few years ago. He has also noticed there is a lot more information shared.

"I mean, think about the sources of information," Zduriencik said. "Whether it's blogs, Internet, these sports talk shows, television stations. You think about the ways that information gets out there."

[...]

Zduriencik doesn't use Twitter, but admits his iPhone often beeps with incoming text messages during meetings. When the Mariners held private meetings of team officials in their suite, going over potential deals, they had one or two of them monitoring computers and plucking out the latest information.

"We'll share it," he said. "A lot of it's just rumors, dialogue from people in the lobby. I chuckle sometimes on a couple of the names I hear [linked to the Mariners]. I'll go, 'That's funny.' And then a day or two later, I'll get a call from that agent and I'll go, 'Ah-ha!' "

Zduriencik says this happens far more often than people think.

"If you really think about it, you have to create a market," Zduriencik said. "So, how do you create a market? You create it by, if I talk to you, talk to you and I talk to you, then I can go tell you, 'Hey, I just talked to three general managers.' Which I did. I'm just creating my own market. That's what it does. And it spurs action."

Well that's cool. I always wondered how much GM's and front office's laughed at the rumors they hear, and now we know. Thanks Jack!

Before leaving the Winter Meetings on Thursday, the Mets made offers to Jason Bay and Bengie Molina. After being relatively quiet for the majority of the week, the Mets made up for their absence. The Mets need to fill several holes, especially at catcher and in the rotation. After finishing 70-92 in 2009, New York's other team must find a way to rejuvenate itself and once again become a player in the NL East.

Signing Bay and Molina would allow the Mets to become relevant again in both their division and city. The Yankees recent acquisition of Curtis Granderson is a big deal. A Mets acquisition of Jason Bay not only takes away some of the Yankees' thunder, it also puts the NL East on notice. The initial offer to Bay is in the $60-$65 million range. Bay rejected a 4-year/$60 million offer from the Red Sox. Unable to obtain high-priced mid-tier free agents, the Mets may as well go after one of the higher profile free agents. New York is one of the few teams that can afford Bay. Bay hit .267/.384/.537 with 36 home runs, 119 RBI, 29 doubles, 102 runs, and 13 stolen bases. Defense is the question mark surrouding Bay, but his offensive output mostly overshadows those deficiencies.The Mets need an upgrade in left field after using nine different players in that position last season.

It's being reported that the Braves and Rays have reached an agreement on the trade of Rafael “Arbitration” (I know it's not that catchy, but give it time) Soriano. The Rays will receive Soriano in exchange for an as-yet unknown player, though the name Jesse Chavez – aka the guy the Rays traded Akinori Iwamura for – has been popping up frequently. Atlanta has also been holding out for a trade offer whereby the team taking on Soriano would also pay the entirety of his salary, so Tampa Bay may be picking up his deal.

The Braves, recall, have been in a similar situation before, when Kevin Millwood unexpectedly accepted arbitration, forcing the Braves to deal him before he could jam up their payroll. They flipped him to the Phillies for Johnny Estrada, a deal that saw people initially think the Braves were making a colossal mistake then think that they'd fleeced the Phils when Estrada was actually competent for a year or two. Of course, as both players became unremarkable, no one cared anymore. You know, one of those trades.

Anyway, while I like the fact that the Braves aren't going to commit $17+MM to their bullpen, I am rather surprised they found a trading partner so soon. They can't have had much leverage; everyone knew they didn't want to pay their relievers that much money, particularly with significant needs to address elsewhere. And yet here they are, potentially unloading his entire salary commitment and perhaps acquiring a somewhat-useful bullpen arm in the process. Now, Chavez isn't exactly the kind of guy you want to give big innings to – he's served up an Eric Milton-esque 13 tater tots in 82 innings, and apparently alternately struggles with his command ('08: 5.4 BB/9. '09: 2.9 BB/9) or missing bats ('08: 9.6 K/9. '09: 6.3 K/9) – but when you're building a major league bullpen, cheap, spare parts like this can't hurt to have around. As for the Rays, they certainly need a shutdown-caliber arm in the back of their 'pen, and Soriano is exactly that. Now, it's tough to predict how well a reliever will perform, but Soriano has a power arm and is stingy with the walks – so hopefully the Rays won't have to rely on fluky years from Grant Balfour et al if they're going to compete again. All in all, everyone comes out on top here – it's the kind of happy ending befitting the holiday season!

Oh, and speaking of which, be extra kind to that Astros fan on your shopping list. Somehow I don't think they're too happy with the $15MM lump of coal that is Brandon Lyon.

While out and about yesterday, ESPN Radio's Mariners insider Shannon Drayer mentioned that the Mariners are actively shopping second baseman Jose Lopez, but can't find any takers.

I, myself, would love to see Lopez gone. His defense is slipping and his power is a bit meaningless. I'll show you what I mean:

2009 Stats

• .272/.303/.463
• .325 wOBA
• 25 HR, 96 RBI
• 1.2 UZR
• 2.6 WAR

2010 Fan Projections

• .281/.310/.452
• .326 wOBA
• 21 HR, 80 RBI
• 0.9 UZR
• 2.2 WAR