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Written by Zach Sanders
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Monday, 21 December 2009 10:13 |
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The Oakland Athletics and outfielder Coco Crisp are close to a deal worth between $4.5-$5 million for one year.
This deal is fantastic for the A's. In only 50 games last year, Crisp was worth this contract. His defense is superb, with a career 5.8 UZR/150 in centerfield, and 10.9 UZR/150 in the outfield. His bat may not be so special, with a career wRC+ of 97 (100 is average). However, he steals bases at a solid rate and his switch hit ability makes him a valid option in any lineup.
He hit .228/.336/.378 last year, with his high walk rate and low average coming as surprises. I would expect a .270/.345/.390 line from him this year, and with his defense that is just fine.
I'm not sure why the A's are spending money on a free agent when there is almost zero hope for an AL West title. The Rangers, Angels and Mariners are all head and shoulders above Oakland at this point, and a short term deal with a free agent outfielder is a surprise. Rumor was that the A's had money to spend, and with a year of experience under their young starting rotation's belt, I suppose they could compete with a couple of key free agent signings. Maybe. Still, any time you can get good value for a player, it's a good deal. If Crisp preforms well, I wouldn't be surprised to see him flipped at the deadline for a couple of mid-level prospects. |
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Written by Zach Sanders
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Monday, 21 December 2009 08:32 |
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Nick Cafardo, Boston Globe:
Fifteen teams have inquired about [C-M Wang], according to agent Alan Nero, and while Nero wouldn’t confirm which teams are involved (except the Yankees, who would like to match any final offer) you can bet the Red Sox are one of them. The plan, according to Nero, is for Wang to visit Dr. James Andrews Jan. 4 and get an updated timeframe on his comeback. The big righthander has had foot, hip, and shoulder issues the past year-plus, but appears to be in good shape. Nero said Wang has been long-tossing since Dec. 1 with no issues, and is hoping to return to the mound in early May.
I'm not surprised the Yankees are interested in matching any offer made. All signs indicated that they still liked Wang, but didn't want to pay him his arbitration price due to his injuries. They likely aren't sure of the market out there so they won't make an initial offer, but once the market is set they appear ready to jump on board the Wang-Train.
I'm not sure if Wang will want to return to the Yankees, and he could be looking for a fresh start somewhere. Returning in early May seems a bit early, and I would want him to wait a couple extra weeks so he can truly be healthy when he returns. Even though they may not have believed it, the Yankees apparently pushed Wang too hard and brought him along quicker than they should have last year. Wang still has a lot left in the tank, and could be a good value for a team if he can healthy. |
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Written by Zach Sanders
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Monday, 21 December 2009 06:22 |
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This weekend, the Cincinnati Reds extended Scott Rolen's contract, through the 2012 season. Instead of making $11 million this season, he will now make $6 million this year, and $6.5 million in 2011 and 2012.
Rolen is 34 years old, and has injury problems throughout his career. He played only 128 games last year, and hasn't played 140+ games since 2006. Rolen hit over .300 last year, but his BABIP says his average will decline next year.
Rolen is known more for his defense and UZR clocks him in as still above average and gaining his team almost a win from his defense.
While he is older and his skill is declining like it, extending Rolen may not be as crazy as you'd think. By extending him and altering this year's contract, the Reds are saving themselves $5 million this year. However, they still have to spend $13 million over the two seasons after this upcoming one, but that is money well spent. Rolen is worth far more than that, and since they traded their previous third baseman for Rolen, it's not a bad deal to lock Rolen up for a couple more years.
Extending an older player is often a bad idea, but I have to give some credit to the Reds on this one. |
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Written by Jonathan Etkowicz
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Saturday, 19 December 2009 11:45 |
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With John Lackey set to take the mound as a member of the Red Sox for the next five years, a void has been created in the Angels rotation. The Angels need a staff ace to replace Lackey, who has been the ace in Anaheim since 2005. There's been talk of the Angels going after Javier Vazquez. Such a move would answer the question of finding Lackey's replacement. That move could also answer the ace question, or muddy up the waters. The Angels don't necessarily have to scramble for an ace, they may already have one on their roster. 
Manager Mike Scioscia has options for his new number one. Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir, Joe Saunders, and Ervin Santana remain on the Angels roster. All four have the tools, makeup, and ability to replace Lackey as the Angels ace. Even without Lackey, the Angels have a deep, talented rotation. By themselves, those four would create a formidable rotation.
Weaver came onto the scene in 2006 and was tagged as a future ace. He went 11-2 that season with a 2.56 ERA and 3.99 FIP. He also struck out 105 compared to walking 33. He followed 2006 going 13-7 in 2007 and 11-10 in 2008. 2009 was the season he delivered on his potential, going 16-8 with a 3.75 ERA, 4.10 FIP, and leaving 76.2% of runners on base. His 211 innings pitched and 174 strikeouts were career highs. Also, opponents batted .246 against him. He also held opponents to a .200 batting average with runners in scoring position. He uses his four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, slider, and changeup with great command. Weaver also racked up four complete games and two shutouts. Weaver also proved himself in playoffs, outdueling Josh Beckett in Game 2 of the 2009 ALDS. Lackey mentored Weaver and it appears to have paid off. Among the Angels' four pitchers, Weaver may have the best pedigree and first opportunity to become the staff ace. The position of ace may be his to lose.
Scott Kazmir is another strong possibility. Before becoming expendable, he was Tampa Bay's first ace and holds a majority of their franchise pitching records. As a member of the Angels, Kazmir suffered from a lack of run support, going 2-2. But he demonstrated his consistency with a 1.73 ERA. When he's on, Kazmir locates his mid-90s fastball very well. He's had problems with location recently, mostly due to his slider. For Kazmir, being an ace comes down to his command. When he's on, Kazmir strikes batters out. He maintains a 9.31 K/9 ratio - leading all AL starters. When he's on, Kazmir is capable of shutting down opposing lineups. Thanks to deep playoff runs in 2008 and 2009, Kazmir has the playoff experience to lead this staff. At the very least, he and Weaver have the potential to become a 1-2, righty-lefty combination over a full season.
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Written by Zach Sanders
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Friday, 18 December 2009 13:50 |
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I wondered what was up Zduriencik's sleeves, and now we know. The Mariners have just traded fat slob pitcher Carlos Silva to the Cubs for Milton Bradley.
Here's the dealio. Bradley and Silva make essentially the same amount over the next two years, and Milton doesn't suck. That on it's own makes the move passable. What makes it great, is that Bradley is ~10x better than Silva, so the Mariners just upgraded their roster significantly without spending money of giving up anything of value.
While Bradley has the reputation of being a clubhouse cancer, I don't think he is. When he was playing everyday in Texas and the team was competing, he was quiet. The problem last year was him butting heads with Sweet Lou, which shouldn't have surprised anyone. In a Mariners clubhouse full of rainbows and gumdrops, he'll be fine. If not, there might be a tickle fight.
If you didn't believe Jack Z wasn't the best GM in baseball before this move, you better believe it now. |
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Written by Zach Sanders
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Friday, 18 December 2009 00:00 |
With the Yankees signing Nick Johnson, the Mariners and GM Jack Zduriencik now have to look elsewhere for a first baseman. What options are out on the market?
1. Russell Branyan
The Mariners had "The Muscle" on the squad last year, and he was really the only source of power in the lineup. They wanted to bring him back and offered him a one-year deal with an option for a second year. Russell said "no thanks" and moved on to the open market, mentioning he would like two years guaranteed. No one has any idea of how much money he is asking for, but it is likely in the $6-$8 MM range for it's AAV. The market for Rus is looking thin, with only the Mariners expressing much interest. Word is, the M's are worried about Branyan's back so they may not be willing to bring him back.
2. Adrian Gonzalez
According to some sources, he would have been a Mariner last July if the team would have been willing to part with Phillipe Aumont in the deal. The M's are likely to make a push for the masher, but I think he ends up being traded to the Red Sox with Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz (along with a prospect) going to San Diego.
3. Prince Fielder
Speculating about players from Jack's days in MIL is easy, but this could happen. A package the starts with Brandon Morrow could be headed to Milwaukee for the slugger. I doubt this happens, but they will at least discuss it.
4. Stay with Mike Carp
Carp is the Mariners first base prospect they acquired in the J.J. Putz deal, and right now he is penciled in to start the year at first. I think he's another year away, but they could allow him to stay in the bigs and work through any issues that may arise.
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Written by Zach Sanders
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Thursday, 17 December 2009 17:25 |
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Larry Stone, Seattle Times:
I heard from someone who works around the Mariners that after Bill Bavasi was fired in 2008, and the Mariners were searching for a new general manager, Damon actually was telling people he would be interested in the job. This person insisted that Damon seemed dead serious, even though he was still an active player.
How can you not like the guy, now? |
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Written by Zach Sanders
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Thursday, 17 December 2009 10:23 |
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In a piece posted Tuesday, I analyze Juan Pierre's fantasy value now that he has been traded to the Chicago White Sox:
Pierre has been stuck behind Manny Ramirez in Los Angeles for the past year and a half, but managed to find plenty of playing time in 2009 when Manny was suspended for trying to get pregnant. When Pierre started games last year, he hit .304/.355/.386 with 28 steals and 43 runs scored in 350 plate appearances.
In my latest piece, I look at Brandon Inge's fantasy value as a third baseman:
The demands of playing catcher have never been good to Inge, and it is understandable. Crouching behind a plate during games and practices is not fun (my catching career only lasted a couple of games), and can affect your legs in ways you cannot imagine. As a third baseman, Inge has a .298 BABIP in 2553 plate appearances. As a catcher, his BABIP is only .240, in 1149 trips to the plate.
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Written by Zach Sanders
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Thursday, 17 December 2009 08:23 |
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Recently, a site did a review of the "Top 25 Blogs for Baseball Fans". While there were some good sites listed (including MLB Notebook contributor Brad Templeman's Baseball In-Depth), there were quite a few problems with the list.
1. No FanGraphs
Possibly the most visited (not sure) and popular site out there today, they didn't even get a mention. Maybe the author was afraid of putting it in the list because it is a stat site, but the blog there is top-notch and updated with great frequency due to a expansive and talented staff (if I do say so myself). How can FanGraphs not be on the list, let along not be number 1? It's astounding.
2. No MLB Trade Rumors
Really? I mean, come on! Only the biggest destination for rumors and news, MLBTR can't even get a mention. That's absurd.
3. No Baseball Prospectus
While I may not be the biggest fan of B-Pro due to their paywall, it still deserves a spot on the list.
4. No Baseball Reference
It may only be a stat site, but it is one of the best sites a fan can visit.
5. Beyond the Boxscore and Hardball Times rankings
BtB was ranked a lowly 24th, with THT coming it at 20th. Both are top-10 blogs, if not top-5.
6. No MLB Notebook
Just kidding. We probably don't deserve to be on this list just yet.
This list reflects one person's views of baseball blogs, sure. But it is a skewed and blind view of the baseball blogosphere today. |
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Written by Zach Sanders
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Thursday, 17 December 2009 06:12 |
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Former Atlanta Brave closer Mike Gonzalez has agreed to a two-year deal worth $12 million with the Baltimore Orioles. The deal could be worth up to $16 million if he meets all of his incentives.
Pitching for the Braves last year, Gonzo pitched 74.1 innings, striking out 90 batters and walking 33. He saved 10 games, but also blew 7 saves on the year. He had a FIP of 3.51, a xFIP of 3.70 and a tRA of 3.74.
According to WAR data, Gonzalez has not been worth $6 million in his entire career. Odds are, he isn't going to get any better. This deal is above his worth, but I bet the Orioles ship him out for prospects at this trade deadline or at next year's deadline. I'm not a fan of the deal, but if they can get some prospects for him at the deadline, I suppose it will be worth it. I've never been an opponent of signing players just to trade them later, but signing a player for more than what they are worth is too big of risk. Flipping a player with a cheap under-market deal is always the best option.
But, I'm not the blogger affected by this signing. Let's see what Daniel has to say about it:
I’m sort of working under the assumption that at some point Andy MacPhail will trade Gonzalez for more prospects than he’s worth, which makes me not be really against the deal. I certainly think it wasn’t a good decision – though not the worst possible one the team could have made given their interest in finding a “closer” – but taking that money ($16 M assuming incentives kick in + $2 M for the draft pick) and maybe paying Aroldis Chapman (or some international prospects) might have have been the better bet for the team in the long-run.
Good to hear I'm sane. The Orioles aren't a playoff team, so signing a expensive closer is a waste of money. I have always campaigned for teams to spend excess money on the draft or on long term contracts for current players if they aren't in a position to compete, and I will continue to do so. But, of course, no one listens.
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