While listening to a couple of Cubs fans commiserate about the team's fortunes, I got to thinking about their decision to ship out Milton Bradley for Carlos Silva. To me, that decision was about three steps worse than just taking the money they owe Bradley and setting it on fire – a practice for which there's precedent in Chicago.

Clearly the organization – and plenty of fans – had identified the malcontent Bradley as What Went Wrong with the team last season. His outspoken nature did not work well with the Wrigley fans or the Chicago media, and early injuries and ineffectiveness only added fuel to the flames. So, it's true that things didn't exactly go as hoped for Mr. Bradley. But his indefensible suspension at the end of the season – an ignominious cap to a disappointing season – sealed his fate. No way you can keep a guy like that around after you do something so drastic*. Upon his departure, Cubs fans were happy, Lou Piniella, who supported the suspension, was happy, and teams who recognized that Bradley was still a productive bat were happy. Everyone wins! Well, except for the beat writers who were, presumably, unhappy because they couldn't blame every problem on Milton “Clubhouse Cancer” (or “Mercurial”) Bradley.

*Also indefensible is the union's actions in response. How did they not move past the “considering filing a grievance” stage there? Is that not their job? They filed a grievance to try to reimburse players for “charitable donations” clauses in their contracts, for crying out loud, and they couldn't be bothered to defend a player who had a legitimate claim? Ridiculous. And I may or may not have included these last two sentences to that I didn't just write a paragraph consisting entirely of questions.

In hindsight, however, we can look back and see that Bradley was not the problem with this team. Did he play up to expectations? Well, no, but if expectations were that he repeat his '08 season (.321/.436/.563, league-leading 161 OPS+) then that was a foregone conclusion from the moment the ink dried on the contract. What he did provide was the third-or-fourth best bat on the team with at least 450 PA. Which, by the way, is a group that includes only him, Derrek Lee, Kosuke Fukudome, Ryan Theriot, and Alfonso Soriano. I mention that not only to point out that injuries were a huge factor in what ailed the Cubs last season – to say nothing of Bradley's season – but to also point out a gentleman on that list who should really be viewed as the scapegoat here. Follow along after the jump for the big reveal of just who that fellow is – and to see how this whole thing broadens into a large-scale look at bad contracts in the league.

Jim Bowden tweeted today that the Texas Rangers are finalizing a deal with Vladimir Guerrero. Earlier speculation had the deal pegged at 1 year for $7MM.

Guerrero will be playing next year in his age-35 season, so it certainly seems like he's on the decline - and his numbers bear that out. A career .321/.386/.568 hitter, he batted .295/.334/.460 last season, which combined with his DH status contributed to a lowly 0.8 WAR. He's been hampered by injuries in recent years, which looks to have reduced him to a slider-speed swing at this pont - he is now posting negative values against fastballs (-0.74 per 100) but faring very well against sliders (3.81 per 100). Plus, and this purely subjective, I feel like I need to take about 12 Aleve and ice my knees every time I watch him run.

So all that said, what can we expect going forward? The three Fangraphs projections systems - Bill James, CHONE, and that of the fans - have him at an average .298/.351/.494 line, and his projected WAR falls in the 1.3 - 1.6 range. Now, those projections aren't taking into account that he'll play at the Ballpark in Arlington, which does favor hitters. As such, that projected line, which seemed to me a little inflated at first blush, isn't out of the realm of possibility. And as for his WAR, $7MM for a hitter who can be about league average is a bit steep of a price (assuming ~$3.5MM per win) but the Rangers have a real chance at winning the division next year, so there's a high marginal benefit there. Their lineup, if Vlad can be as effective a hiter as the line suggests, will be formidable; a step forward from Elvis Andrus and one of Taylor Teagarden or Jarrod Saltalamacchia would make it a solid 1-9 group. If they can pitch - and there is talent in the rotation, albeit with a lot of risk - this team could really make some noise next year. All in all, if the Rangers aren't expecting his old MVP-caliber lines, this looks like it could be a solid deal - and could also make the AL West very interesting next season. I wonder what Jack Z is up to...

UPDATE: Sounds like the deal is now expected to be for $5MM, not $7MM. -Zach

This is essentially "Morning Notes", but transaction oriented.

• Casey Kotchman has been traded to the Seattle Mariners. Kotchman is being penciled in as the starting first baseman, and I'm not excited about it. Yes, his defense is good. And yes, he is a good line drive hitter with a nice eye at the plate. And yes, value is value is value. But still, this lineup needs another guy that pitchers have to be somewhat afraid of. Go trade for Luke Scott, or sign Delgado/Branyan. Please.
• Going to the Red Sox in the Kotchman deal is Bill Hall, a PTBNL (likely a MiLB catcher), and cash. Hall is a great defensive utility man, and has some power to boot. He should do O.K. in Fenway, and won't cost the BoSox much.
• In another move, Eric Hinske has signed with the Atlanta Braves. While he isn't likely to see much time as a starter, he will get a good amount of AB's as the team's primary pinch-hitter against right handed pitchers. Like this for the Braves, because it gives them insurance if Troy Glaus goes down and they need a first baseman. Hinkse seems to be on teams that make it a long way in the playoffs, so maybe this is a good omen for the Braves? More than likely, he'll just be traded to a better contender and make the World Series once again.

• Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald tells us that the Marlins believe they are out of the Aroldis Chapman race. He also reports that the Marlins are likely to have Dan Uggla until at least spring training, and may even have him as their second baseman next season.
• Danny Wild of MLB.com takes us through Fausto Carmona's road to the major leagues.
• Due to the Matt Capps signing, the Nationals still need to drop someone from their 40-man roster to make room for their new closer.

Despite that, I think a case can be made that Appier was the better pitcher.

Durability and longevity definitely go to Morris. He's way ahead on starts (527 to 402) and innings pitched (3824 to 2595). He leads on wins (254 to 169) and winning percentage (.577 to .552). He had more Cy Young support (7 top 10 finishes to 1) and more All-Star appearances (5 to 1). And despite all that, I still think Appier was better.

Appier's 3.74 ERA is only a little better than Morris' 3.90, but because they pitched in different era (with Appier playing during the offensive explosion in the '90s) the gap in ERA+ is 121 to 105. Appier struck out batters at a better rate (6.9 K/9 to 5.8 K/9) and walked batters at a lower rate (3.2 BB/9 to 3.3 BB/9). He gave up home runs less frequently (0.80 HR/9 to 0.92 HR/9). On a per game basis, he was the better pitcher. Is that enough to make up for the disparity in innings though?

Let's look at their Wins Above Replacement numbers, courtesy of Rally's historical WAR database.

Appier: 50.4 WAR career
Morris: 39.3 WAR career

Top seasons (all those over 4 WAR)
8.4 - Appier (1993)
7.6 - Appier (1992)
6.2 - Appier (1996)
5.3 - Appier (1997)
5.1 - Morris (1979)
4.9 - Morris (1987)
4.8 - Morris (1985)
4.7 - Appier (1990)
4.7 - Morris (1986)
4.4 - Appier (1994)
4.3 - Appier (1995)
4.1 - Morris (1991)

That's 12 seasons; 7 for Appier (including the 4 top ones) and 5 for Morris.

Here's a handy graph showing the same for all of their respective seasons, ordered from highest WAR to lowest (as popularized at Beyond The Box Score).

Morris was good for a long while, but Appier had the much better peak- a Hall of Fame worthy peak, in fact - and was better well into his worse seasons.

During their best 5 year stretches:

Appier ('93-'97):
69-34, 3.22 ERA, 145 ERA+, 1014.2 IP, 32.2 WAR

Morris ('83-'87):
94-54, 3.38 ERA, 120 ERA+, 1324 IP, 23.6 WAR

As with the whole story, Morris pitched more (and on better teams) but just not as well. I think that Kevin Appier was a better pitcher during his career than Jack Morris.

Time for the Hall of Fame election party to begin! And this year, we'll have a very special surprise guest: Andre 'The Hawk' Dawson was the only player voted in.

Dawson, a former Expo (and probably the most famous victim of unforgiving artificial turf in Montreal), Cub, Red Sock (Sox), and Marlin, played for 21 seasons, compiling a career .279/.323/.482 line, with a 119 OPS+, 438 dongers, and 314 stolen bases. The recipient of eight Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers, and an MVP award, he received 77.9% of the vote in his ninth year on the ballot. Dawson's one of only three players in history with 400 homers and 300 stolen bases (Barry Bonds, Willie Mays), and was, in my recollection, a very well-liked player.

I'll admit I did not expect him to make it – that .323 OBP is awfully low – but I also didn't expect this: Bert Blyleven missed the Hall (that part I expected) by five votes (wowee!). Blyleven is an annual hot-button topic come Hall of Fame time, and I'll simply say that it's a travesty he's not in. If you're not tired of it by now, Joe Posnanski and Craig Calcaterra, among many others, have more – and better – things to say on the Circlin' Dutchman's behalf. But the good news is that, barring a conviction for black tar heroin-inspired murder of a puppy or ten, Blyleven appears sure to make it next year.

Another just-short-surprise is Roberto Alomar, for precisely the opposite reasons of Mr. Blyleven. I expected Alomar to be a first ballot shoo-in, but he instead fell eight votes short. I cannot for the life of me imagine why, unless it's more of that pointless, misguided “no one is first-ballot-good” stance that so many writers have adopted in the past. I honestly can't see any other reason why he wouldn't make it; he's unquestionably one of the best second basemen of all time. But, like Blyleven, this mistake will in all likelihood be righted next year. I'd make a joke about some scandal ruining his chances, but, well, Alomar has had his share. And, yes, I linked to that article because of the Dewey Defeats Truman aspect of the whole thing.

Of course, this wouldn't be a Hall of Fame post on a sabermetrically-inclined blog if I didn't mention Jack Morris. The “dominant bulldog” (guhh) received 282 votes (5 short of Blyleven's win total – ha!), so he's got a way to go. Other first-timers Barry Larkin and Edgar Martinez received 51.6% and 36.2% of the vote, respectively, and hopefully they'll get more support as we go. Oh, and if you're looking to get your ire going today, here's some fodder for thought: Tim Raines, another saber-fave, received an appallingly low 30.4% of the vote – less even than Lee Smith's 47.3% (!). Mark McGwire got 23.7%. Alan Trammell, who is just criminally underappreciated, got 22.4%.

Get a bit upset there? Well, time for a chuckle – Andres Galarraga got 22 votes and Dave Parker (even more of a poster boy for cocaine use than Rock Raines) pulled in 82. I ask only that you consider those as humorous accidents rather than a flagrant misuse of voting privileges, as is so often the case with HoF reactions. But, hey, if you choose to hate the vote– and I certainly condone that – or think that I'm an idiot for my choices – which I do not condone - let us know in the comments!

Randy Johnson announced his retirement from baseball yesterday, bringing an end to one of the most outstanding pitching careers in baseball history.

You probably know most of his highlights, but they're worth revisiting. Let's take a look:

• 5-time Cy Young winner, including 4 straight from 1999-2002. He also won one award in both leagues, which only he, Roger Clemens, and Pedro Martinez have done.

• Threw 2 no-hitters, including one of the eighteen perfect games in MLB history

• 10.61 strikeouts per nine and 9 strikeout titles, making him the best strikeout pitcher of all time

• Winner of the 2002 pitching triple crown with a 25-4, 2.32 ERA, 334 K season

• 303 wins, putting him in the 24-member 300 win club

• Co-World Series MVP in 2001

• 37 career shutouts, most among active pitchers

• 136 career ERA+, 6^th best among active pitchers and 21^st of all time

• Hit batters 190 times, which isn't necessarily “good” but is pretty cool – that's the most among active pitchers and 3rd-most of all time

• 3.257 K:BB ratio, which is 10^th among active players, 24^th in history

• Allowed .895 tater tots per nine, 27th-best of all time

• Threw 100 complete games, most among active pitchers

• Perhaps most impressively, did this

So, yeah. Pretty good stuff from the man they call The Big Unit. But Johnson wasn't always the complete, dominant pitcher that we remember – there was a time, from 1989-1992, where he was astoundingly wild. In that time frame, he surrendered 5.8 BB/9 and a 1.437 WHIP despite allowing only 7 hits/9. Which I suspect made him more or less the most terrifying guy in the world to face...just ask John Kruk. And as far as I can tell, Johnson is only the second starter ever to have a K rate of 9 or above and a sub-2.00 K:BB ratio for four consecutive seasons (Nolan Ryan nearly managed the feat for his entire career). But then, in 1993, it started to click.

I wish I had more for you today. I did, but my computer shut down without warning and my work for this site was not saved, and I didn't have the time/energy to redo them.

In the meantime, you can read what I have to say about Ben Zobrist's fantasy value.

Hold on to your keys and wigs, kids: the Cleveland Indians have signed Austin Kearns to a minor-league deal!

Now, this may not sound as exciting as the other big-ticket deals that have been happening this winter, but for fans of cheap, useful talent, this is an intriguing acquisition. Formerly of the Reds and Nationals, Kearns has long been touted as a supremely talented player who, for one reason or another, simply never put it together. This is due partly to his outstanding rookie campaign in which he hit .315/.407/.500, albeit in only 435 PA. But even since then, he's not been unproductive; his age 26 season (.264/.363/.467, 24 HR) was nothing to scoff at, and he's been an above-average player for his career (104 OPS+, though a 67 and 72 mark in the past two seasons, respectively, are admittedly troubling). Normally, I'm not a fan of bringing in veteran talent in favor of young players, but when you can get a guy like Kearns on a minor-league deal, it's win-win.

So what can we expect from Kearns in the upcoming season? It appears that he will slot in as a reserve outfielder, backing up some combination of Michael Brantley and Shin Soo-Choo. This is an ideal situation for him, because he's a very good glove man (career 9.8 UZR/150 in right field. Plus, a 47.0 mark in left...in 13 innings. But still.) and can acquit himself with the bat well enough – particularly considering his outstanding plate discipline (career .353 OBP, even mustering a .336 mark last season despite a sub-Mendoza batting average). If his injury woes haven't sabotaged the power he flashed earlier in his career, the Tribe may have done a great job of upgrading their bench at little cost.

Yes, it finally happened. The Red Sox signed Adrian Beltre. His deal will be worth between $9-$10MM next year, and he has a player option for the 2011 season worth $5MM. Unless he gets seriously hurt or really sucks it up, that option will not be exercised.

The Beltre, Mike Cameron, and John Lackey's signings this offseason show the Red Sox are improving their team defense and pitching staff. Most teams that want to focus on pitching and defense can't put together the lineup the Red Sox can, but that's what money will do for you.

While most fans while gripe and moan about this deal and the offseason's signings, the team got better, and that's what matters. They may not be exciting to watch at the plate, but this team is going to win. Pure and simple.