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    Florist One
    The Tigers Are Confused
    Written by Paddy McMahon   
    Thursday, 14 January 2010 18:53

    Or confusing, really. I know they're confusing me, and I presume that they themselves aren't exactly sure what it is they're trying to do. To wit: at one point in this offseason, they traded Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, presumably at least in part to save money. And now...they've gone and signed Jose Valverde for 2 years and $14 million.

     

    Yes, you read that right. $14 million. For a Closer (important to capitalize that).

     

    Look, teams have been better of late about not shelling out big money deals to below-average players (Ed Wade excluded). And the Tigers, of all teams, should have been part of that group; you can't go trading an excellent centerfielder to save money, and then go and blow that money plus some on a reliever (especially a not-very-good one). It's just not how teams win games – or at least win them efficiently. Valverde's a guy with a big arm and big save totals, but has bad command (~4 BB/9) and is homer-prone (1.03 HR/9). Oh, and he's never racked up more than 1.7 WAR – and that was way back in 2005. It's like Dave Dombrowski is willfully ignoring all this newfangled mathy statsistical stuff that should be telling him how inane this move is. Relievers simply aren't worth that much money, and especially not when you're (a) essentially a non-competitor and (b) looking to cut costs.

     

    Oh, and you want the icing on the cake for this deal? Since Valverde was a Type A free agent (thanks, outdated ranking systems that value saves!) the Tigers have the happy obligation to send the Astros their 1st round pick! Is it too early to nominate Dombrowski for Executive of the Year?

     

    For really though...awful, awful work by the Tigers here. You'd sort of think that a team that's stuck paying Oh-Wee-Oh Magglio's near-$20MM salary this season would be a little more cost-conscious, no? In any event, have you some fun Tigers fans. This might could be a long season for you.

     
    Concerning Carlos Beltran's Knee
    Written by Paddy McMahon   
    Wednesday, 13 January 2010 23:51

    Bad news for the Mets today, as word is coming down that Carlos Beltran underwent knee surgery today and is going to miss about 8-12 weeks.

    Now, there's conflict about whether the procedure was a relatively minor 'scope of the knee - which wouldn't necessitate such a long return time – or a microfracture procedure. Microfracture surgeries, while not career-threatening anymore, are riskier and more invasive than a simple 'scope, so hopefully Beltran had the latter. And the procedure is more common in the NBA, but Beltran's had bad knees for awhile now, so the toll that baseball is taking on his knees appears to be something of a special case.

    Another interesting aspect of this whole deal is that Beltran had the procedure performed by his own personal physician, rather than the team doctor, and in fact did not consult the team prior to having the procedure performed. I don't mean to speculate too much, but because of this, the Mets could seek damages against Beltran for the time he'll miss while collecting salary – and, in fact, were it a lesser player than Beltran, they might even try to void his contract. While that seems unlikely, should this be a case of microfracture surgery, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Mets sued to recoup their spending on him.

    Medical and legal aspects aside, what can we expect on the baseball side of things? Beltran's been an elite player for awhile now; he's averaged a 136 OPS+ over the last four seasons, and has an excellent reputation as a fielder that's somewhat bolstered by a career UZR/150 of 3.7. Also, Joe Posnanski loves him, which certainly makes him popular in blog circles. Clearly, the Mets are not going to be able to replace his production, but they might luck into some good play for the month – or maybe more – that Beltran will miss. It doesn't really make sense to trade for someone at this point, unless the team fears that Beltran will miss significantly more time than expected, so free agency or sliding over a current outfielder looks to be the way to go. Of current free agents, only Alfredo Amezaga and Rick Ankiel are center field candidates, but defensively, neither are that great. On that note, I personally would like to see them sign Jermaine Dye and his -20 UZR/150 in right field. Boy, would that be fun. But the Mets do have a very solid in-house option.

    Angel Pagan (who has a delightfully somewhat-paradoxical name) is listed as the backup on the Mets' depth chart. He's posted excellent UZR/150s of 14.9 and 19.8 in left and right field respectively, though he's only played ~800 innings in the two spots combined. He's spent 764 innings in center field, and logged a -0.7 mark there, but I suspect that he would perform better than that given significant innings. He can't hit like Beltran, but is projected (by a mix of Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel) to hit at around a .279/.336/.430 clip, which is pretty solid. Overall, he's got to be the likely choice to fill in for Beltran – and it looks like he'll be a good choice at the spot, at that. The Mets are no stranger to injury woes, but at least this time, they'll have a somewhat capable fill-in.

     
    The Padres have the Right Idea
    Written by Zach Sanders   
    Tuesday, 12 January 2010 12:26

    Bill Center, San Diego Union-Tribune:

    The Padres are adding six scouts, essentially expanding their amateur scouting department by more than 40 percent.

    “We want to put more scouting manpower in the areas that produce the most players,” Assistant General Manager Jason McLeod said yesterday.

    “We want to get more looks and more information on high school and college players before the draft.

    “It was clear to me from afar last year that the Padres were understaffed at the area scout and cross-checking levels. And hopefully, this is just a start.”

    The Padres will have 16 area scouts this season compared to 12 last year. And the national cross-checking staff has been doubled to four. In addition, McLeod said former Scouting Director Bill Gayton will be utilized in a variety of roles.

    While this seems like a small and insignificant move by the Padres, it's not. I have shouted this idea from the mountain tops in multiple platforms, but I'll say it again.

    If a team is in rebuilding mode and has money to spend, they have two options:

    1. Spend the money on veteran free agents to fil holes, and hope they play well enough to be dealt at the trade deadline to get some value in return. If not, oh well, you filled a hole on your roster.
    2. Use that money to bolster your scouting and player development system to bring long-term talent to the franchise and continue to develop the talent you already have.

    Which option do you like better? I prefer number two, and it isn't close. The Padres seem to understand this concept, and rightfully so. Now I am confident, Jed Hoyer knows what he's doing.

     
    Morning Notes: Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, Mad Dog
    Written by Zach Sanders   
    Tuesday, 12 January 2010 09:06

    • The Cubs are planning on taking a look at Ben Sheets when he auditions for MLB clubs. Sheets is supposedly asking for a deal worth 20+ million over two years. He's not going to get it. My best guess is that Sheets will end up on an AL West team not named Oakland, the Yankees, the Cubs, or the Mets. The Dodgers are still in the mix, but they seem to be out of it at this point.
    • Chris Haft of MLB.com says that after signing Aubrey Huff, the Giants are likely done making moves this offseason. Why? They still need some offense, bad. Sure their pitching is good and they have the park for it, but their offense is extremely weak right now.
    • Ian Browne of MLB.com answered some fan questions, and spoke about Tim Wakefield. He said that the Red Sox plan on evaluating Wake during spring training, and going from there. If he is healthy, the Red Sox will have six starting pitchers for five spots. A bullpen trip could be in Wake's future, but chances are he'll see quite a few starts with injuries popping up, and just to keep their starters fresh.
    • Wrigleyville23 passes along a report that Greg Maddux will be returning to the Cubs as a special assistant the GM. He will assist in spring training and do some scouting work. I always believed Maddux would make a great pitching coach, and maybe this is the first step. Welcome back to baseball, Mad Dog.

     
    Breakfast Links: Marlins, Astros, Legacy Awards
    Written by Zach Sanders   
    Tuesday, 12 January 2010 06:00
    • Michael Jong gives his thoughts on the Marlins talking extension with Josh Johnson.
    • Bob Harkins passes along a report that Astros owner Drayton McLane is seriously considering selling the team. I always thought McLane was an alright owner, but he did hire Ed Wade.
    • The MLB announced the Legacy Award winners for the 2009 season. What's a legacy award? No clue, but apparently they are given out by the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum.

     

     
    Extra, Extra! McGwire Took Steroids, Ruined Baseball!
    Written by Paddy McMahon   
    Monday, 11 January 2010 17:54

    There are very rare occasions when I wish I was just a regular old blogger, and not a baseball-centered kind of guy. This is one of those days. Now, that's not out of me being ashamed of steroids in my favorite sport, or anything silly like that. Frankly, I've no problem with steroids, and were my favorite players to have refused them, I'd think somewhat less of them for failing to embody the competitive spirit that abounds in professional sports. If you ain't cheatin, you ain't tryin, as the adage goes (I'm nothing if not a role model for kids). Rather, it's because the big baseball news is that Mark McGwire admitted to taking steroids. Predictably, Twitter is abuzz with snark and sarcasm at the news (or at least the snarky, sarcastic group of people that I follow are); to wit:

    “#OMGFacts: Breaking news! M. McGwire just announced he too . . . zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.” (@OldHossRadbourn); “If I inject steroids into my apathy, will I care more or less about McGwire's admission?” (@xmasape); “Oh, so THAT'S why Mark McGwire didn't want to talk about the past ...” (@eyebleaf); “Mark McGwire just admitted that Michael Redd's knee is not 100% healthy.” (@Unsilent).

    And so on and so forth. You get the idea. But why I say this is one of the rare times when I'd like to be a regular writer is because today has been a fun little news day in the non-baseball world. For example, EA Sports has announced that they're making a new version of NBA Jam. Granted, it's only for Wii, but for kids who grew up on that game (like me!), it's exciting news nonetheless. And they're even letting fans vote for the players that will represent three of the teams*! It's like the fun never ends. And there's even good times to be had outside of the world of sports, as Sarah Palin is getting a show with Fox News. Which is, of course, excellent. It's one of the shows I'd watch if I cared as much about unintentional comedy as I claim to – just like Glenn Beck's tour de force.

     

    *EA: email me and I'll tell you where to send the check.
     
    Ed Wade and his Acquisitions
    Written by Zach Sanders   
    Monday, 11 January 2010 14:55

    Oh, Ed Wade. You suck so much. Satchel Price of Beyond the Boxscore:

    In a market where 1 WAR is going for slightly less than $3.5M, Wade has paid $4.65M per win. Factoring in the fact that Houston isn't exactly on the high side of the win spectrum, and you're looking at arguably the worst offseason in baseball. Dayton and Omar, your move.

    I had actually meant to do this sort of analysis myself, but never quite got around to it. For those of you who don't think this offseason has been affected by the economy, it has. Last year, a win went for over $4 million.

    I am reallly surprised Ed Wade hasn't been fired yet. He's never done anything spectacular, the Astros farm system is a complete mess, and the team is getting old. It can't be long before the Astros' completely collapse and force a complete rebuilding of sorts. However, the 'Stros are willing to spend some money, so they will always look like they are trying to win soon and not rebuild (even though they need to).

     
    Jim Palmer Got A Little Help From His Friends
    Written by Daniel Moroz   
    Monday, 11 January 2010 12:00

    Whenever I have written about Mike Mussina's place in history - whether it be ranking the top Orioles or taking an early look at his potential Hall of Fame candidacy - I've tended to compare him to Jim Palmer. It made sense, since Palmer is the Gold Standard against which all O's pitchers are judged. In the end, I came around to the conclusion that Mike Mussina (including his years in New York), was a better pitcher than Jim Palmer. The surface stats for both are similar*, but Palmer pitched in front of some great defenses that helped his cause. It's that latter point that I wanted to address.

    * Very similar:

    Palmer: 268-152, 126 ERA+
    Mussina: 270-153, 123 ERA+

    Obviously their other stats are different due to the vastly different eras in which they pitched, but damn if that isn't spooky close.

    I went through Rally's histrocial WAR database, looking at the top 500 pitchers as ranked by Wins Above Replacement. That's everyone from Cy Young (146 WAR) to Bob Forsch (18.6 WAR, though I have no idea who that is). On there for each pitcher is a defensive component which is the "estimated runs saved by this pitcher's defense, using TotalZone range, DPs, OF arms, and catchers, prorated by the number of balls in play allowed by the pitcher."

    Jim Palmer was easily the pitcher whose defense saved him the most runs, ahead of the immortal Old Hoss Radbourn and the eminently mortal Dave McNally.

    Here's the top 10:

    Jim Palmer: 144 runs saved
    Dave McNally: 129 runs saved
    Charley Rabourn: 106 runs saved
    Tim Keefe: 104 runs saved
    Catfish Hunter: 97 runs saved
    Kid Nichols: 96 runs saved
    Tony Mullane: 85 runs saved
    Whitey Ford: 85 runs saved
    Tom Glavine: 80 runs saved
    Jack Morris: 76 runs saved*

    * And yet he still had a 3.90 career ERA.

    The only guy even close was his long-time teammate on those great Orioles teams in the '60s and '70s.

    For completeness, here's the bottom 10:

     
    On the Move: Chapman, Vlad, Greene, Huff
    Written by Zach Sanders   
    Monday, 11 January 2010 09:14

    Some players were on the move this weekend. Let's take a look.

    • Aroldis Chapman finally signed, and he is going to the Reds. He agreed to a 5-year, $30 million deal with Cincinatti on Sunday. Previously, it was believed he was going to agree to a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, but the Reds seemed to swoop in a up the price at the last moment. From a team that seemed to be financially strapped earlier in the offseason, this is an interesting move. Chapman is a high upside arm and will help the Reds, and the price isn't too bad. I'd expect to see Chapman in the big leagues after the all-star break, but it's hard to tell at this point.
    • Vladimir Guerrero finalized his deal with the Rangers, and looks to be making $5-$6 million on a one-year deal. That Rangers lineup looks devastating now, but I'd like to see them sign a starting pitcher. Ben Sheets, anyone?
    • The Rangers made another move, signing Khalil Greene to a deal. He will backup Elvis Andrus at shortstop, and can play some third base if Michael Young goes down with an injury. He is an average defender with some pop in his bat, and isn't much more than a backup at this point.
    • In a move coming late Sunday night, Aubrey Huff has agreed to a deal with the Giants. While he has put together some good offensive seasons in the past, he is in no way the answer to the Giants problems. This move was strange. Why not at least take a chance on a guy like Russell Branyan at first? Very weird deal, but Huff needed to return to the NL. Problem is, he is in one of it's worst parks. His deal is worth $3 million over one year.
     
    Breakfast Links: Blue Jays, Cardinals, Aybar
    Written by Zach Sanders   
    Monday, 11 January 2010 06:01

    The Blue Jays have traded for pitcher Zach Jackson, acquiring him from the Indians for a PTBNL. I've always had a soft spot for Jackson (for no reason), so I hope he gets a shot at the big league roster.

    Over at Play a Hard Nine, Erik Manning looks at some insurance policies the Cardinals should sign, along with delving into the greatness of Jimmy Edmonds.

    Marc Topkin reports that Rays infielder Willy Aybar will end his winter ball season after spraining his wrist. Aybar will be the backup third and first baseman in Tampa Bay this season.

     
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