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    zsanders 7.11.2009 22:21
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    Florist One
    Zack Greinke Is So Damn Awesome
    Written by Daniel Moroz   
    Wednesday, 18 November 2009 12:15

    Zack Greinke won the AL Cy Young award, with 25 of 28 first-place votes. It should have been unanimous, but I won't quibble with that. Instead, I'd like to bring attention to a few quotes from this article from the NY Times.

    Greinke considered that Felix Hernandez might have been awarded by the voters, but it looks like he knew what the correct decision was.

    "“I thought that could push him over the top, because his won-loss record was way better than mine,” Greinke said. “But I’m also a follower, since Brian Bannister’s on our team, of sabermetric stuff and going into details of stats about what you can control.”" 

    Good ol' Banny, helping out a guy who already has great stuff.

    "Bannister said Greinke has learned to adjust his pitching based on the advanced defensive statistics. Because of the size of the outfield at Kauffman Stadium and the strength of the Royals’ outfielders, relative to their infielders, it sometimes made more sense to induce fly balls."

    Since they pay attention to UZR, I'm sure they're thrilled to pitch in front of Yuniesky Betancourt (-20.5 UZR in 2009).

    "To that end, Bannister introduced Greinke to FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, the statistic Greinke named Tuesday as his favorite. It is a formula that measures how well a pitcher performed, regardless of his fielders. According to fangraphs.com, Greinke had the best FIP in the majors."

    And finally:

    "“That’s pretty much how I pitch, to try to keep my FIP as low as possible,” Greinke said."

    I don't have much to add, though when I read the above quote yesterday (as referenced by others) I thought it was a joke. Inroads are being made - however slowly - and in Kansas City of all places.
     
    How Chien-Ming Wang Ruined my Fantasy Season
    Written by Zach Sanders   
    Wednesday, 18 November 2009 10:46
    During the baseball season, I was in the IIATMS fantasy league and finished seventh. Not great, eh? Well, some of the issues I had came from a trade I made before the season started. Below is the exact trade (if you can't guess, I'm MLBN).

    MLBN dropped Jonathan Sanchez, SF SP to Waivers
    MLBN traded Shane Victorino, Phi OF to Fool Theory
    MLBN traded Tim Lincecum, SF SP to Fool Theory
    FOOL traded Adam Dunn, Was OF to MLB Notebook
    FOOL traded Elvis Andrus, Tex SS to MLB Notebook
    FOOL traded Chien-Ming Wang, NYY SP to MLB Notebook
     
    Position of Interest: Second Base, Los Angeles Dodgers
    Written by Jonathan Etkowicz   
    Wednesday, 18 November 2009 08:30

    Last offseason, the Dodgers were able to acquire second baseman Orlando Hudson for a cheap 1-year/$3.8 million. With Hudson winning a Gold Glove for his play in 2009, resigning him won't be that simple. There's also no guarantee the Dodgers attempt to resign Hudson. In fact, it appears Hudson won't be returning to the Dodgers.

    Second base for the Dodgers is wide open. Ronnie Belliard is also a free agent. The Dodgers could resign him to compete with Blake DeWitt in Spring Training. Hudson was benched in favor of Belliard late during the season with Belliard playing second base during the playoffs. The Dodgers know what they'd be getting from Belliard. Both Belliard and DeWitt provide position flexibility as well. Both can play at third base when needed and Belliard can spend time at first base. The Dodgers do possess known options for second base.

    Another possibility is acquiring a second baseman via trade. Thanks in part to their recent acquisition of Chris Getz and Josh Fields, the Royals are looking to trade Alberto Callaspo. They have the Dodgers targeted as a potential trade partner. The Royals want catcher A.J. Ellis in exchange for Callaspo. Ellis split time between Triple-A and Los Angeles in 2009. The Dodgers could also inquire about Luis Castillo, who is no longer untradeable according to Buster Olney (ESPN Insider).

     
    Morning Notes: Mitre, Gagne, Lackey
    Written by Zach Sanders   
    Wednesday, 18 November 2009 06:01

    • With all of the Cy Young hype yesterday, the Yankees declining Sergio Mitre's option for 2010 fell through the cracks. They did not want to pay him $1.25MM, and understandably so. However, he is still under team control, and could be back with the team through a new deal or arbitration. Mitre isn't really a bad pitcher, just nothing special. He doesn't strike many people out, but he doesn't walk batters either. Also, his ground ball percentage impresses me (59.7% career).
    • Eric Gagne wants to return to the majors, but this time as a starter. He was originally a starter when he started his baseball career, but that ended a couple of seasons after he was called up to the bigs. As mentioned in the article, the Brewers will not be interested in his services. He's been working since he left the Brewers with shoulder issues, and has supposedly improved his arsenal with a cut fastball. He is worth a shot, because he is willing to start in the minors, but most teams won't be willing to waste their time on him.
    • The Nationals are interested in John Lackey. Let's be honest, everyone is interested in Lackey, but his asking price will deter most of them. I would bet cash money that the Nationals won't sign Lackey, giving them less than a 5% chance.

     

     
    Jays to Give Halladay Suitors a Negotiation Window?
    Written by Paddy McMahon   
    Tuesday, 17 November 2009 21:40

    Word has come down from Rotoworld and MLB.com that the Blue Jays are willing to give a team to which they trade Roy Halladay an exclusive negotiation window to hammer out a contract extension. Apparently, J.P. Ricciardi was unwilling to offer such a deal, which doesn't really make sense to me, since it seems to behoove a team to create as much value for the player they're trading away as possible. But whatever...I'm no GM. Which, now that you mention it, neither is Ricciardi!

    ANYWAY, with this news regarding a potential Halladay deal, it seems a fitting time to examine the trade market for (all-decade ace!) Doc. There's a fairly strong free agent crop, so teams who aren't looking for top-of-the-rotation guys (save for Lackey) will have plenty of alternative options. So I conducted some rudimentary research, most of which was lost due to some technical difficulties. Suffice it to say that  I identified the Angels, Mariners, Rangers and Tigers as contending teams whose pitchers were worse than the league-average 4.53 QERA. Of those four, the Angels seem unlikely to deal for Halladay, since (a) they could just resign Lackey and (b) have been rather reticent about dealing their prospects in the past. The Tigers have payroll constraints that, unless they can unload a contract on the Blue Jays - unlikely, given Vernon Wells' massive albatross deal - will take them out of the running. But the Mariners and Rangers have the three key qualities here: need for an ace, ability to contend in 2010, and prospects with which to deal.

    My proposed deals are as follows: the Mariners could send off SS Carlos Trifunel, RHP Brandon Morrow, RHP Phillipe Aumont, and C Adam Moore for Halladay. (Zach's note: 99% chance this will never happen. The Blue Jays and Mariners would say no to this, because the package isn't good enough and the Mariners would no more minor league depth). The Rangers could step to the plate with 1B Chris Davis (or Justin Smoak, if they need to upgrade), CF Julio Borbon and C Max Ramirez. Now, again, these deals are probably either way overvaluing or undervaluing the respective prospects, and maybe the Blue Jays want Major League-ready guys, and who knows if either of the two are in the running for Halladay. But the Rangers are a team built for this upcoming season, for whom the addition of Halladay makes a lot of sense. The Mariners took huge steps forward this season by upgrading their run prevention, and to pair Halladay with Felix Hernandez atop the rotation would create a formidable pair of aces who could take games from anybody in the league. Throwing aside payroll constraints, which is especially unreasonable in the Rangers' case, I think that both the Mariners and Rangers make a lot of sense as possible destinations. Regardless, it's always exciting to watch the trade market for an all-timer develop; any Halladay trade will dwarf what is shaping up to be an otherwise dull off-season.

    And on a lighter note, while I was browsing the ever-helpful Cot's Baseball Contracts, I found out that Roy Halladay has a clause in his contract that specifies he pay $100,000 a year to the Jays Care Foundation. Which is nice, I suppose, but that doesn't really seem like the sort of thing that should be in a contract. And then I saw that Vernon Wells has to pay $143,000 per year. Which makes more sense, but if Doc pays a hundred g's per year, Vernon Wells should be paying a hell of a lot more than 143K. Now, bear with me through a very tenuous transition. Because of those two stipulations, I started to wonder if all Jays players have to contribute something to society at large. The answer, of course, is 'no,' but I'm not going to let that stop me. I'm saying right here and now that RHP Mark Rzepczynski should pay his debt to society by starting a Jazzercise-esque class. Again, bear with me. It will be called Sztep with Rzep. If you happen to be Mr. Rzepczynski, and would like to see a my preliminary ad copy, and you're not offended by fantastically (poorly) made MS Paint picture of your head on Richard Simmons' body, please do click through the jump. You can keep all the profits from this sure-to-be-lucrative venture; I just ask that you give me credit somewhere. Also, I swear this was more relevant in the first, forever lost version of this post, but, well, crazy things happen in Canada.

     
    MLE's Strike Again
    Written by Zach Sanders   
    Tuesday, 17 November 2009 09:40

    Doing some digging around for something I'm working on, something caught my attention and is begging to be posted here. Just beggin', I tell ya!

    Before we get to it, there is a definition that is essential to this post. The idea of MLE's, or Major League Equivalencies. This formula takes minors league stats, and converts them to how the player will perform in the majors. It factors in minor league level, and what league they play in on that level.

    Below are some very simple numbers, that will shock and awe you from Clay Buchholz.

    2009 AAA: 7.85 K/9, 2.65 BB/9

    AAA MLE: 6.68 K/9, 3.61 BB/9

    2009 MLB: 6.65 K/9, 3.52 BB/9

    It's not perfect, but it's damn close.

    All stats from MinorLeagueSplits.com

     
    Morning Notes: Sandoval, Uggla, Holliday
    Written by Zach Sanders   
    Tuesday, 17 November 2009 07:11
    • Pablo Sandoval has given up the month of November to work with a conditioning instructor at the Giants minor-league facility. He spends five hours a day, five days a week trying to get into better playing shape for 2010. Is it just me, or does this seem like fat camp? I've said it once, and I'll say it again: I like the fat Kung Fu Panda. Don't let them change you, Pablo!
    • Michael Jong does some digging, and figures out how good Dan Uggla would be at an alternate position. I don't want to give it away, so go over there and check it out. To give a bit of a tease, Dan Uggla isn't a good defender, no matter where you stick him.
    • Sam Miller of the OC Register looks at the rumor of Matt Holliday to the Angels. Miller tells us that the Angels would have to bump up their payroll or trade one of their core players will have to be traded to afford Holliday. Also, if they sign Holliday, forget about Lackey coming back, as that would take up way too much money. He would make their lineup deadly, but their rotation needs a big game pitcher more.
    • After negotiating with the Cubs since season's end, John Grabow has filed for free agency. It seems like Grabow will be back, but it opens up the Cubs to a bidding war for one of the most effective lefties on the market.

     

     
    Breakfast Links: ROY Reactions
    Written by Zach Sanders   
    Tuesday, 17 November 2009 04:47

    Some linkage revolving around yesterday's Rookie of the Year results from yesterday:

    • Adam J. Morris at Lone Star Ball is disappointed that Elvis Andrus didn't win, but believes Andrew Bailey was a worthwhile choice.
    • Over at Raise the Jolly Roger, Brian cannot understand why Andrew McCutchen only placed 4th in the NL voting, saying "I’m not worked up about this because I really wanted him to win the award. I just dont understand the BBWAA’s reasoning–at all."
    • Oakland A's reliever Michael Wuertz was very happy his teammate won the award, saying "what he did and where he came from, it's absolutely amazing."
    • At Talking Chop, "gondeee" believes that not pitching a full big league season hurt Tommy Hanson's chances at winning.

    In case you don't remember, I voted for McCutchen and Andrus, so I wasn't exactally happy with the results. Like Morris, I understand Bailey winning the award, but Chris Coghlan? No thank you.

     
    Rookie of the Year Awards Announced
    Written by Daniel Moroz   
    Monday, 16 November 2009 19:00

    The Rookie of the Year awards were announced today, with A's closer Andrew Bailey taking the award in the AL and Marlins outfielder* Chris Coghlan winning in the NL. I was largely resigned to these decisions, though I don't think they were correct. (Cue the self-righteous indignation and brazen second-guessing.)

    * Sort of.

    Coghlan hit an impressive .321/.390/.460 - I'm not taking anything away from that - but that wasn't too much more substantial than Pirates center-fielder Andrew McCutchen's .286/.365/.471 line. McCutchen outhomered Coghlan 12 to 9, drove in more runs (54 to 47), and did both in 72 fewer plate appearances. On top of that, Coghlan played left-field (his natural position of second-base was occupied by Dan Uggla) - and somewhat poorly at that (-11.1 Ultimate Zone Rating) - while McCutchen was about average (-0.7 UZR) in the more valuable outfield spot (CF). Overall, Coghlan came in at 2.3 Wins Above Replacement according to FanGraphs, while McCutchen blew him out of the water with 3.4 WAR. A shiny batting average - built largely off of a .366 BABIP - is nice, but defense matters too.

     
    The All-Decade Team: PItchers
    Written by Paddy McMahon   
    Monday, 16 November 2009 16:31

    On Saturday, I wrote a post at my other blog, Knuckle Curve Semi-Drop where I picked the All-Decade Team among position players. Today, I'll be concluding that post with the selection of the pitching staff. Catch up on the other guys here, or here if you want to just see the team without my explanation.

     

    Same rules apply here as they did there. Stats cited were produced only during this decade (2000-09). A player needn't have played all 10 years, but the more the better. MVP candidate (and Cy Young, for this post) means that a player finished in the top-20 of the voting for the respective award. Drumrolls, envelopes, and tearful acceptance speeches are sure to come after the jump.

     

     
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